Mexico’s gas production falls short as US imports surge to record levels

Mexico’s imports of earthy state from the United States proceed to emergence twelvemonth implicit year, expanding by 2.7% implicit the archetypal 4 months of 2025 to a grounds precocious of 6.261 cardinal cubic feet per day, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration figures. 

At the aforesaid time, state accumulation by the highly indebted state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) decreased 6.3% year-on-year to 3.534 cardinal cubic feet per time (Bcf/d) from January to May 2025, marking a 2nd twelvemonth of decline.

President Sheinbaum, seen present with Energy Minister Luz Elena González Escobar and Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) Director Emilia Calleja, wants home state accumulation to scope 5 Bcf/d by 2030. (@EmiliaCalleja/on X)

Mexico is the main purchaser of U.S. earthy state and U.S. exports of earthy state to Mexico person risen each twelvemonth since 2011, but successful 2022. 

Those increases, on with the dip successful home production, person prompted worries that Mexico is ever much susceptible to the assertive commercialized policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. Mexico uses state to nutrient astir 60% of its electricity, truthful its dense dependence connected U.S. state has near experts disquieted that Trump whitethorn weaponize state exports to enactment greater unit connected Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. 

“An interruption of the travel of state to Mexico would beryllium beyond chaotic,” W. Schreiner Parker, managing manager for Latin America astatine the vigor quality steadfast Rystad Energy, told The New York Times. “It’s genuinely 1 of the unspoken reasons wherefore Sheinbaum has been truthful accommodating to Trump.” 

In 2024, imported earthy gas, mostly from the United States, contributed 74.6% of Mexico’s demand, astatine an mean of 8.7 Bcf/d, according to information from the Mexican Energy Ministry. This is astir 35% higher than the 2014 average. 

Average home state accumulation done May was 15% beneath the 4.163 Bcf/d goal outlined by President Sheinbaum successful November 2024, erstwhile she presented the National Strategy for the Hydrocarbons and Natural Gas Sector.

The apical 3 challenges facing Mexico’s vigor sector: An interrogation with the Institute of the Americas

Sheinbaum’s vigor argumentation pursues accumulation of implicit 4.7 Bcf/d of state starting successful 2027 and reaching 5 Bcf/d by 2030. Those goals look progressively improbable arsenic Pemex’s lipid fields mature, drilling instrumentality becomes outdated and work providers hold projects implicit non-payment. 

Long-term, Mexico could put successful caller home unconventional state reserves, which could instrumentality respective years and a important investment. Or it could diversify its vigor premix done renewable vigor expansion, thing Sheinbaum’s predecessor refused to do.   

With reports from El Economista, The New York Times, Energy Magazine, Reuters and Oilprice