World Bank forecasts 0.2% growth for Mexico, citing persistent global ‘turbulence’ 

The World Bank updated its 2025 economical maturation forecast for Mexico connected Tuesday, amid increasing commercialized uncertainty that is expected to deed Mexico harder than different Latin American countries. 

The World Bank anticipates a GDP maturation complaint for Mexico of conscionable 0.2% successful 2025. That’s somewhat up from its April speechmaking of 0%, but down from the 1.5% maturation it had predicted for this twelvemonth successful January. The maturation forecast for 2026 is 1.1%. 

The World Bank cited “volatile nutrient inflation” arsenic Latin America’s large obstacle to managing header (total) ostentation successful 2025. (@worldbankdata/on X).

Meanwhile, the maturation complaint for Latin America arsenic a full was revised downward from 2.6% to 2.3% successful 2025 and to 2.4% successful 2026. 

“Only six months ago, a ‘soft landing’ appeared to beryllium successful sight,” World Bank Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Indermit Gill wrote successful the report’s foreword. “That infinitesimal has passed. The satellite system contiguous is erstwhile much moving into turbulence.”

Gill explained, “International discord—about trade, successful particular—has upended galore of the argumentation certainties that helped shrink utmost poorness and grow prosperity aft the extremity of World War II.” 

Increasing commercialized barriers and greater uncertainty globally are expected to dilatory economical maturation crossed Latin America, according to the World Bank’s June Global Economic Prospects. 

Mexico, the region’s second-largest economy, volition beryllium the astir straight affected, mostly owed to the 25% tariffs imposed connected imports by the United States for goods that are not compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada escaped commercialized statement (USMCA). Mexican exports to the U.S. successful 2024 accounted for 80% of the country’s full exports, and astir fractional of them were not covered by the UMSCA.

In comparison, U.S. tariffs connected imports from different Latin American countries are astatine 10%.

“Additional commercialized restrictions nether a revised United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement could further trim Mexico’s exports,” the World Bank warns. Meanwhile, “a sharper-than-expected slowdown successful U.S. maturation would importantly trim request for LAC (Latin America and the Caribbean) countries’ goods and services.” 

Latin America indispensable absorption connected keeping “headline ostentation comparatively contained contempt volatile nutrient inflation,” according to the World Bank. 

The planetary economical maturation forecast is besides little than past year, astatine 2.3% successful 2025 compared to 2.8% successful 2024.

Meanwhile, China’s economical maturation is projected to alteration from 5% successful 2024 to 4.5% this twelvemonth and 4% adjacent year. The strict tariffs connected imports from China to the U.S. volition apt besides hamper Chinese nearshoring activities successful Mexico.  

With reports from Minenio and Los Angeles Times