Opinion: Could Mexico make America great again? Zeroing in on the demographics

Anyone who has ever taken an economics people knows that the 2 basal factors of accumulation are labour and capital. So, unless robots abruptly instrumentality implicit the planet, we request to speech astir radical — and we request to bash it seriously. In my erstwhile 2 texts, I wrote astir Trump’s argumentation guardrails and astir China. This time, I’ll absorption connected what whitethorn beryllium the astir indispensable constituent of the U.S.–Mexico relationship: its people.

Before getting into authorities and economics, it’s worthy grounding the speech successful a elemental demographic fact. Today, more than 20% of the U.S. colonisation is Hispanic, and over 70% of that radical is of Mexican origin. This isn’t an abstract statistic — it’s a structural diagnostic of American society, disposable crossed ample parts of the state and chiefly concentrated successful the Southwest.

With that discourse successful mind, the United States is location to the largest Mexican diaspora successful the world, but what we often hide is that Mexico is besides location to much Americans than immoderate different state extracurricular the U.S. That unsocial has important governmental implications. Three U.S. states — New Mexico, California and Texas — are already bulk Latino.

Let maine repetition that: the bulk of voters successful those states, much than immoderate different radical (including achromatic Americans), are Latino.

And not coincidentally, Texas and California are the 2 states with the top value successful the Electoral College. Several others are pursuing the aforesaid path. In the coming years, states similar Arizona, Nevada and Florida — among others — are apt to scope a akin tipping point.

Beyond citizenship and identity, there’s besides the labour marketplace reality.

Mexico is the fig 1 state successful presumption of enactment visas issued by the United States, followed by China. This matters due to the fact that the U.S. labour marketplace is structurally constrained. A speedy look astatine the Bureau of Labor Statistics — specifically the ratio of unemployed workers to occupation openings — tells a precise wide story: for the past 7 years (excluding a little infinitesimal during the pandemic), the U.S. has consistently had more occupation openings than unemployed people. This isn’t rocket science. If the United States wants to grow, reindustrialize and compete, it needs people.

Here’s wherever demographics go intolerable to ignore.

China, the United States and Mexico are entering precise antithetic phases — and that divergence matters. China has already passed its colonisation highest and is experiencing a sharp decline successful commencement rates, which volition steadily shrink its working-age population. The United States is aging too: Baby Boomers and Gen Xers are retiring faster than younger generations are entering the labour force, resulting successful a net simplification of astir 450,000 workers per year (take a infinitesimal to fto that descend in).

Mexico, by contrast, is astatine a demographic infinitesimal akin to China’s astir 30 years ago, with a still-growing and comparatively young working-age population. This makes Mexico’s labour unit a natural complement to the U.S. system — not arsenic a substitute, but arsenic a strategical hold of North America’s productive capacity. Quick clarification: I’m not necessarily arguing for accrued migration flows. Having everybody moving wrong their territory, but with a consciousness of collaboration and complementarity, works.

With a colonisation that is, connected average, eight years younger than that of the United States, and a workforce that has spent the past 3 decades grooming successful high-end manufacturing, Mexico has a wide accidental to enable — not replace, not outsource — the reindustrialization of the region. Add to that the heavy social, taste and governmental ties betwixt our 2 countries, and the decision becomes hard to ignore.

If we take to spot each different arsenic partners successful growth, the way guardant is clear.

We request bridges, not walls.

Pedro Casas Alatriste is the Executive Vice President and CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico (AmCham). Previously, helium has been the Director of Research and Public Policy astatine the US-Mexico Foundation successful Washington, D.C. and the Coordinator of International Affairs astatine the Business Coordinating Council (CCE). He has besides served arsenic a advisor to the Inter-American Development Bank.