MND Local: Why high-value tourism is down, not just in Los Cabos, but across Mexico’s top beach resort destinations

In May, Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) reported that tourism had accrued successful the state by 11.9% successful March. This contempt the high-profile decease of CJNG cartel person Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes during a Feb. 22 subject cognition successful Jalisco, an lawsuit that acceptable disconnected a firestorm of retaliatory blockades, car burnings and different arson attacks; images that were wide disseminated successful the U.S.

The figures made nary consciousness astatine the clip of their release, due to the fact that it was already wide that planetary aerial arrivals were down. In fact, they’ve continued to plummet ever since successful galore of Mexico’s astir notable tourer destinations. INEGI didn’t lie. But their numbers suggested a mendacious narrative: that tourism was inactive thriving. 

Numbers tin beryllium deceiving: Mexico received much than 9 cardinal visitors successful March, but the economical interaction was muted owed to the alteration successful planetary aerial arrivals. (Mexico News Daily)

What really happened successful March is that it was a banner period for border-crossing daytrippers and cruise vessel passengers successful Mexico; oregon “short-timers.” But among the tourists who really substance astir successful presumption of important economical impacts — the 27% of planetary aerial arrivals who contributed 84% of each tourism dollars during the period — their numbers dipped by 7.5% successful March comparative to the aforesaid period successful 2025, and that inclination is ongoing. 

The slump successful planetary visitors

International aerial arrivals were down 8.2% successful April and 7.5% successful May. That’s nationwide, and though June did springiness a World Cup bump to big cities successful Mexico — Guadalajara, for example, saw an 11.9% bump successful June — successful large edifice destinations similar Los Cabos, Puerto Vallarta and Cancún, the downward descent continues.

Los Cabos, since posting mild gains successful planetary arrivals successful January and February (2.6% and 4.2%, respectively), has seen its numbers alteration period implicit month: by 7.1% successful March, 9.7% successful April, 10.5% successful May and 14.2% successful June. 

In Puerto Vallarta, tract of arson attacks successful the aftermath of the “El Mencho” sidesplitting successful February, the high-value tourism concern is adjacent much dire. International arrivals dropped by 32.1% successful March, 23.5% successful April, 26.5% successful May and 33.4% successful June. 

Cancún, the country’s astir fashionable edifice destination, has seen the aforesaid troubling trend, albeit to a somewhat lesser extent, with international aerial arrivals falling by 4% successful March, 3.3% successful April, 11.1% successful May and 13.1% successful June.

Why tourism is down successful Los Cabos 

Of people it’s simplistic to nexus this downward spiral successful planetary aerial travelers to Mexican edifice destinations solely to cartel-related arson attacks being shown connected American web television. But yes, it’s a factor, admitted Rodrigo Esponda, managing manager of the Los Cabos Tourism Board (FITURCA), successful a caller interrogation with Sudcaliforniano. 

International aerial arrivals person been down successful Mexico comparative to 2025 numbers since March, though a World Cup bump did assistance prime destinations successful June. (Mexico News Daily)

In the lawsuit of Mexico mostly and Los Cabos specifically, however, helium pointed retired 2 different contributing factors to the dwindling numbers of tourists. “The geopolitical context, wherever the outgo of pitchy substance has increased, has impacted the outgo of aerial travel, and this has led to a alteration successful question by Americans,” helium noted, portion besides acknowledging Los Cabos’ ain unspeakable infinitesimal successful the media spotlight aft the hit-and-run mishap that injured 17 during World Cup celebrations, and resulted successful the decease of the operator pursuing his beating by the crowd. 

The inclination from a nationwide perspective

Bad press, arsenic Esponda highlights, has surely been portion of the wide inclination of less Americans flying to Mexico since March. And since Americans marque up 60% of each tourists to Mexico, immoderate displacement successful user behaviour has consequences for Mexico’s question manufacture arsenic a whole. 

But different reasons are driving this trend, too, from ostentation to a “strong” peso comparative to the dollar. There are besides U.S. hose capableness cuts, a effect to the emergence successful pitchy substance prices that Esponda referenced. In May, Delta axed work from Seattle to Cancún, Los Cabos and Puerto Vallarta. Southwest has chopped 11 planetary flights this year, including Baltimore, Chicago and Indianapolis to Los Cabos; St. Louis to Puerto Vallarta; and Chicago, Colorado Springs and Milwaukee to Cancún. 

Alaska Airlines has also announced it’s dropping flights from its schedule, including the Las Vegas to Los Cabos and Puerto Vallarta routes, and the Los Angeles to Cancún route. 

What the summertime tourism doldrums look similar successful downtown Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo

It’s not conscionable the shrinking fig of planetary tourists that are progressively making Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo consciousness similar shade towns. As I’ve noted before, the rising popularity of all-inclusive hotels crossed the hospitality manufacture has besides played a important relation successful squeezing downtown barroom and edifice owners. 

In San José del Cabo, “Thursday is the lone time with accordant activity, driven by the accepted Art Walk,” Edgar Román, vice president of rank for the section Chamber of Commerce, precocious told the Gringo Gazette. “From Friday done Wednesday, businesses acquisition a sizeable diminution successful lawsuit traffic.” 

It has not been a bully twelvemonth for Mexico’s 3 biggest formation edifice destinations. Cancún, Los Cabos and Puerto Vallarta person each seen important losses successful presumption of planetary aerial arrivals. (Mexico News Daily)

Unfortunately, Art Walk ended successful June, truthful adjacent Thursdays look bleak until the fashionable seasonal enactment resumes successful November. Restaurant income are down an estimated 35% successful Los Cabos crossed the industry, though immoderate person done better, comparatively speaking, than others.

“We’re down 30% for this year,” the proprietor of a perenially fashionable downtown edifice successful Cabo San Lucas told me, “and we were down past year, too.”

“We are each doing our champion to support sustainable moving conditions for our unit until things improve,” said Román, who is besides enforcement cook and proprietor of Don Sánchez. “We cognize this isn’t a large play for anyone, and we’ve had to trust connected savings to upwind the slowdown.”

From atrocious to worse

But there’s lone truthful overmuch you tin trust connected savings earlier they tally out. More than 20 restaurants person closed locally since past year, among them long-standing favorites similar Pancho’s, Lorenzillo’s Lobster House and Alcaravea Gourmet.

As for the Los Cabos Tourism Board, aft seven years of publishing monthly information connected tourism statistics, it has not published thing since February. That’s erstwhile you cognize things are bad. 

Chris Sands is simply a writer and exertion for Mexico News Daily, and the erstwhile Cabo San Lucas section adept for the USA Today question website 10 Best and writer of Fodor’s Los Cabos question guidebook. He has besides contributed to galore different websites and publications, including The San Diego Union-Tribune, Marriott Bonvoy Traveler, Forbes Travel Guide, Porthole Cruise and Travel, and Cabo Living.