Mexico’s week in review: Sheinbaum’s sovereignty narrative faces its toughest test yet

How overmuch sovereignty does Mexico truly have? That question hung implicit the week of Jan. 26-30 arsenic the United States exercised expanding authorization wrong Mexico and weaponized tariffs to reshape Mexican overseas argumentation beyond its borders.

The week began with President Claudia Sheinbaum insisting alleged cause trafficker Ryan Wedding had simply turned himself successful astatine the U.S. Embassy past week — contradicted by a Wall Street Journal bombshell revealing FBI agents handcuffed the fishy successful what 1 authoritative called a “zero-margin, high-risk operation” connected Mexican territory. By week’s end, Trump issued an enforcement bid threatening tariffs connected immoderate state supplying lipid to Cuba, putting Mexico’s solidarity with the land successful nonstop struggle with its request to support commercialized relations with its bluish neighbor.

Between these episodes of American pressure, Sheinbaum grappled with a debilitated information communicative and the quality of lackluster GDP maturation successful 2025.

Didn’t person clip to travel this week’s apical stories? Here’s what you missed.

Ryan Wedding apprehension contention deepens

The circumstances surrounding the Jan. 22 apprehension of alleged cause trafficker Ryan Wedding dominated headlines passim the week. Wedding, a 44-year-old erstwhile Olympic snowboarder wanted connected U.S. cause trafficking and execution charges, was apprehended nether circumstances that stay murky.

President Sheinbaum has consistently maintained that Wedding turned himself successful astatine the U.S. Embassy successful Mexico City, adjacent arsenic Wedding’s lawyer disputed the surrender narrative, telling reporters connected Monday that “any rotation that the authorities of Mexico is putting connected this that helium surrendered is inaccurate.” On Wednesday, a Wall Street Journal exclusive published Wednesday painted a antithetic picture, citing U.S. and Mexican officials who described FBI Hostage Rescue Team engagement successful an cognition that Mexican instrumentality explicitly forbids.

FBI Director Kash Patel, who was successful Mexico City during the arrest, called it a “zero-margin, high-risk operation” executed by FBI teams “alongside our Mexican partners.” The Journal reported the FBI’s engagement was intended to stay secret, arsenic Mexican instrumentality prohibits overseas agents from participating successful instrumentality enforcement operations connected Mexican soil.

At her Thursday property conference, Sheinbaum insisted the WSJ study supported her mentation of events, adjacent though the nonfiction intelligibly suggests U.S. involution successful Wedding’s arrest.

WSJ: FBI progressive successful Canadian trafficker’s apprehension successful Mexico contempt prohibition connected overseas agents

The contention raises broader questions astir U.S.-Mexico practice connected information matters astatine a clip erstwhile the Trump medication has threatened unilateral strikes against cartels successful Mexico. On aggregate occasions passim the week, the president reiterated that Mexico volition ne'er “accept associated operations with the United States, oregon with federal, authorities oregon municipal forces of the United States, successful our territory.”

However, according to the WSJ, the FBI is present mapping retired much targets crossed Mexico for imaginable associated operations, suggesting this whitethorn beryllium the archetypal of galore specified incidents.

Is information successful Mexico improving?

While the Sheinbaum medication has touted a 30% diminution successful homicides successful 2025 arsenic grounds of improved security, a broad investigation of transgression statistic this week revealed a troubling representation that calls the government’s claims into question.

The study examined grounds that authorities authorities whitethorn beryllium systematically misclassifying murders arsenic lesser crimes. The fig of intentional homicide victims allegedly declined 11% implicit six years, portion victims of culpable homicide and “other crimes against beingness and integrity” accrued 11% and 103%, respectively.

More concerning, disappearances surged 16% during Sheinbaum’s archetypal twelvemonth compared to López Obrador’s last year. A full of 14,765 radical who disappeared betwixt October 2024 and September 2025 remained unaccounted for. When homicides and disappearances are combined, the full declined lone 5% compared to the AMLO administration’s mean — acold little awesome than the promoted 30% homicide reduction.

Security experts suggested that disappearing radical allows organized transgression to “create terror” and “hide lethal violence” due to the fact that without a assemblage there’s nary transgression — a concern that is “politically profitable” for each involved.

The week brought caller grounds of Mexico’s information challenges. In Salamanca, Guanajuato, gunmen massacred 11 radical astatine a shot field, portion successful Sinaloa, 2 authorities legislators were hospitalized aft an assassination effort successful Culiacán. Most troubling was quality from Concordia, Sinaloa, wherever Canadian mining institution Vizsla Silver confirmed a wide kidnapping of employees, with victims inactive missing and enactment suspended indefinitely.

Despite authorities claims of improved security, a caller study showed that feelings of insecurity among Mexicans person risen adjacent arsenic authoritative transgression statistic person fallen — suggesting a disconnect betwixt lived world and authorities narratives.

Pemex pauses scheduled lipid shipment to Cuba

Cuba was a 2nd beforehand from which Mexico’s presumption betwixt rule and pragmatism came into crisp alleviation this week.

On Jan. 23, Reuters reported the Sheinbaum medication was reviewing whether to proceed shipments to the land amid mounting U.S. pressure, citing 3 elder authorities sources who expressed “growing fearfulness that the United States could instrumentality unilateral enactment connected our territory.”

Monday brought quality that Pemex had canceled a scheduled January shipment. At her Tuesday property conference, Sheinbaum didn’t contradict the cancellation but emphasized lipid shipments are a “sovereign decision” made by Mexico and Pemex. When pressed connected whether shipments would resume, she simply said: “In immoderate case, we volition pass you.”

The unit escalated passim the week. Trump declared connected societal media that “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!” portion Politico reported the medication was weighing a full blockade. Mexican officials observed astatine slightest 3 U.S. Navy drones conducting flights implicit the Bay of Campeche since December, pursuing routes taken by tankers carrying Mexican substance to Cuba — the aforesaid surveillance craft spotted disconnected Venezuela’s seashore earlier U.S. subject involution there.

When Sheinbaum spoke with Trump by telephone Thursday, she indicated Cuba wasn’t discussed during the 40-minute speech focused connected borderline security, cause trafficking and trade.

President Sheinbaum had a telephone telephone with U.S. President Trump connected Thursday morning, but Mexico’s enactment of Cuba was reportedly not a topic. (Claudia Sheinbaum/X)

But the adjacent day, Trump issued an enforcement bid declaring a “national emergency” implicit Cuba and establishing a tariff strategy nether which further duties whitethorn beryllium imposed connected imports from countries that supply lipid to Cuba. The order, arsenic the Associated Press noted, “would chiefly enactment unit connected Mexico.”

At her Friday property league successful Tijuana, Sheinbaum delivered a prepared four-point response: reaffirming Mexico’s committedness to sovereignty, informing tariffs could trigger a humanitarian situation affecting Cuban hospitals and nutrient supply, instructing the overseas curate to interaction the State Department for clarification and pledging Mexico “will question antithetic options to help, successful a humanitarian way, the radical of Cuba.”

She stressed her authorities needs to recognize “the reach” of Trump’s bid due to the fact that “we don’t privation to enactment our state astatine hazard successful presumption of tariffs.” She noted determination are “other ways to support” Cuba beyond oil, and adjacent suggested the United States itself could nonstop lipid to the island. “Our involvement is that determination is not a superior concern for the Cuban people,” she said, portion acknowledging Mexico’s request to debar further tariffs.

Mexico finishes 2025 with 0.7% GDP growth

Amid controversies and geopolitical tensions, Mexico’s system delivered the invited quality of grounds export show that prevented a recession aft the system shrunk 0.3% successful 3rd quarter.

Mexico’s exports surged to $664.8 cardinal successful 2025, a 7.6% summation representing the strongest maturation since 2022. More importantly, the beardown decorativeness created Mexico’s archetypal commercialized surplus since 2020 — a humble $771 cardinal that nevertheless contrasts sharply with 2024’s $18.5 cardinal deficit.

The December surge was peculiarly impressive, with exports climbing 17.2% compared to the erstwhile year. This show helped propulsion GDP maturation to 0.7% for the year, keeping Mexico retired of recession contempt what a Bank of America main economist called “an situation of uncertainty and caller tariffs.”

Carlos Capistrán Carmona, main economist for Mexico and Canada astatine Bank of America (BofA), told Forbes mag that exports volition erstwhile again beryllium Mexico’s economical motor successful 2026, forecasting maturation supra 5%.

Light quality and taste highlights

Not each the quality successful Mexico this week was dominated by controversy.

• At the 2026 Sundance Film Festival, Guillermo del Toro delivered a mariachi performance and adjacent took implicit tortilla prep successful the kitchen.
• More Mexicans are visiting Japan, inspired by a increasing involvement successful Japanese culture.
• Grupo Modelo plans to flood Mexico with brew during the 2026 World Cup to marque Mexico the tournament’s champion host.
• A brace of jaguar cubs and a achromatic carnivore were spotted successful San Luis Potosí, suggesting colonisation growth.
• Panchito the elephant seal made his yearly sojourn to Mexico’s Pacific coast.
• President Sheinbaum wrote a missive to Korea’s premier curate requesting much BTS performance dates aft summons income for the group’s circuit successful Mexico descended into chaos.

Looking ahead

The week’s events highlighted analyzable challenges facing the Sheinbaum administration. The Ryan Wedding contention exposed tensions implicit U.S.-Mexico information practice up of USMCA reappraisal negotiations. Questions astir transgression statistic endanger the president’s information narrative, portion export occurrence provides economical leverage but whitethorn not offset broader maturation challenges.

The connection from Washington was unmistakable: Mexico’s decisions — connected instrumentality enforcement, connected commercialized partners, connected overseas argumentation — are taxable to American approval.

The Cuba determination volition trial Mexico’s quality to support overseas argumentation independency portion managing an assertive U.S. medication that has threatened subject strikes. Sheinbaum faces a delicate balancing enactment betwixt rule and pragmatism.

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