Mexican officials optimistic about last-minute deal to avoid 30% US tariff

Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said Tuesday that the Mexican authorities has made each imaginable effort to stave disconnected the 30% tariff the United States intends to enforce connected imports from Mexico starting this Friday.

He expressed optimism that Mexico volition scope a woody with its bluish neighbour to halt the work from taking effect.

🚨 Trump se mantiene firme

Los aranceles del 30% entran en vigor el viernes.

“Ya todo lo que México tenía que hacer está hecho. Ahora tenemos que esperar”, decía Ebrard ayer.pic.twitter.com/UNFZhqs4vA

— Manuel Lopez San Martin (@MLopezSanMartin) July 30, 2025

“[The negotiations] person been precise intense, complex. We’re hours distant from knowing however this signifier volition conclude. My position is optimistic, but we person to hold for the decisions President Trump takes with his team,” Ebrard said astatine a property conference.

“Everything that Mexico had to bash is already done,” helium said.

Ebrard said that “the results” of Mexico’s negotiations with the United States implicit the 30% tariff volition beryllium known connected Friday.

The Mexican authorities has spent overmuch of 2025 attempting to negociate alleviation from tariffs imposed by Donald Trump.

The latest commercialized negotiations came aft the U.S. president informed President Claudia Sheinbaum successful a July 11 missive that the United States, starting Aug. 1, would “charge Mexico a tariff of 30% connected Mexican products sent into the United States, abstracted from each sectoral tariffs.”

US announces 30% tariff connected Mexican goods arsenic bilateral talks continue

Trump didn’t specify whether the 30% tariff would beryllium added to — oregon regenerate — the existing 25% tariff that applies to Mexican goods that don’t comply with the USMCA escaped commercialized agreement.

Although the U.S. president appeared to connote that each Mexican goods would beryllium taxable to the 30% tariff, a communal mentation of his missive was that the caller work would lone use to non-USMCA compliant products, and would summation the existent complaint by 5 percent points.

“The marketplace truthful acold has interpreted that the caller tariff connected Mexico represents lone a marginal alteration from the presumption quo,” Ernesto Revilla, managing manager and caput of Latin America economics astatine Citigroup, wrote successful Americas Quarterly connected July 14.

“That is, it is simply a five-percentage-point summation successful a tariff that applies to little than 20% of full commercialized betwixt Mexico and the U.S. that is non-USMCA compliant,” helium said.

The United States has not publically clarified whether the 30% tariff volition use to each imports from Mexico oregon conscionable those that don’t comply with the USMCA. However, an unnamed White House authoritative told The New York Times that the exemption for USMCA-compliant goods would astir apt continue.

“The authoritative besides said the 30 percent complaint would regenerate the erstwhile 25 percent levies that Mr. Trump imposed connected the country,” the Times reported.

Trump explained the rationale for the 30% tariff successful his missive to Sheinbaum.

“Despite our beardown relationship, you volition recall, the United States imposed tariffs connected Mexico to woody with our nation’s fentanyl crisis, which is caused, successful part, by Mexico’s nonaccomplishment to halt the cartels, who are made up of the astir despicable radical who person ever walked the earth, from pouring these drugs into our country. Mexico has been helping maine unafraid the border, BUT, what Mexico has done, is not enough,” helium wrote.

“Mexico inactive has not stopped the cartels who are trying to crook each of North America into a narco-trafficking playground. Obviously, I cannot fto that happen!” Trump said.

Despite United States Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick saying connected Sunday that determination would beryllium “no extensions” oregon “grace periods” for U.S commercialized partners, Sheinbaum has besides expressed optimism that Mexico volition scope a woody to ward disconnected the 30% tariff. She said past Thursday that her authorities was doing everything it could to halt the caller work from taking effect.

“There is simply a squad moving successful the United States with the [U.S.] commerce caput and the treasury secretary,” Sheinbaum told her greeting property league connected Thursday.

Sheinbaum said past week that she would question to talk to Trump astir the projected 30% tariff “if it’s necessary.” (Daniel Augusto/Cuartoscuro)

“We made a bid of proposals that person to bash with Plan México and also reducing the commercialized shortage [with the United States], which is 1 of the concerns of President Trump,” she said.

“The commercialized shortage tin beryllium reduced done antithetic mechanisms that don’t impact the system of Mexico. So we’ve been making a bid of proposals and we’ll contiguous them present [at a aboriginal time], hoping that we scope an agreement.”

Sheinbaum besides pointed retired that fentanyl seizures astatine the Mexico-U.S. borderline person importantly declined since she took bureau past October.

What US tariffs presently use to imports from Mexico?

These are the tariffs that are presently successful effect for imports from Mexico.

• Tariffs of 25% use to each Mexican goods that don’t comply with the USMCA escaped commercialized pact. These tariffs took effect connected March 4 when the United States imposed 25% duties connected each imports from Mexico. Trump suspended tariffs connected imports from Mexico covered by the USMCA escaped commercialized pact on March 6.
• Tariffs of 50% use to Mexican alloy and aluminum and hundreds of products made with those metals. The United States imposed a 25% tariff connected alloy and aluminum successful March and accrued the complaint to 50% successful June.
• Tariffs connected vehicles made successful Mexico person been successful effect since April 3. The United States imposed 25% tariffs connected each conveyance imports connected this date, but U.S. contented successful vehicles assembled successful Mexico is exempt from the duty, lowering the effectual tariff connected vehicles made successful Mexico.
• Auto parts made successful Mexico that don’t comply with USMCA rules person been taxable to a 25% tariff since May. The immense bulk of car parts made successful Mexico bash comply with the USMCA and are truthful exempt from the tariff.
• Fresh tomatoes from Mexico person faced a tariff of astir 17% erstwhile entering the United States since July 14 aft the U.S. withdrew from a 2019 statement with Mexico that suspended an antidumping work investigation.

More than 80% of Mexico’s commercialized with US is tariff-free, says Ebrard 

Although the United States presently imposes a scope of tariffs connected imports from Mexico, Ebrard said that 84% of Mexico’s commercialized with its bluish neighbour complies with the USMCA and is truthful tariff-free.

The system curate asserted that Mexico is successful a bully presumption successful its commercialized narration with the United States “if you comparison the country’s concern to the remainder of the world.”

Mexico was the apical exporter to the United States successful 2023 and 2024, and Ebrard asserted that it volition clasp that presumption “despite the tariffs.”

With reports from El Economista, El Financiero and Reforma