Foreign investors have sold off US $7B in Mexican government bonds this year

During the archetypal 10 months of 2025, overseas investors withdrew much than 130 cardinal pesos (US $7 billion) successful bonds backed by the Mexican government, marking 1 of the largest outflows of overseas superior from authorities instruments successful caller years. 

According to information from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), astatine the extremity of 2024, immoderate 1.8 trillion pesos (US $99.5 billion) successful Mexican authorities bonds were held by overseas investors.

In contrast, by the extremity of October of this year, the magnitude declined to 1.7 trillion pesos (US $92.4 billion) aft investors sold disconnected authorities bonds worthy 43.6 cardinal pesos (US $2.3 billion) successful October alone, marking 7 consecutive months of superior outflows.

The Trump effect?

According to the cardinal bank, successful January, the period Donald Trump returned to the U.S. presidency, overseas investors sold disconnected 29 cardinal pesos (US $1.5 billion) worthy of Mexican authorities bonds.

February saw a rebound, with purchases amounting to 49 cardinal pesos (US $2.6 billion), followed by 17.2 cardinal pesos (US $925 million) successful March.

However, since then, determination person lone been outflows. In April, overseas investors sold disconnected 27.8 cardinal pesos (US $1.52 billion) of bonds. May income reached 46 cardinal pesos (2.53 billion), followed by losses of 4.9 cardinal pesos (US $272 million) successful June, 9 cardinal pesos (US $489 million) successful July, 10 cardinal pesos (US $544 million) successful August and 32 cardinal pesos (US $1.7 billion) successful September.

Analysts astatine Banamex noted that overseas holdings of bonds present relationship for 12% of the total, the lowest level since 2010. 

The outflow coincides with a play of planetary fiscal volatility, marked by geopolitical tensions stemming successful portion from tariffs and commercialized policies imposed by the United States administration, arsenic good arsenic uncertainty implicit the upcoming reappraisal of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). 

Another cardinal origin is the diminution successful involvement rates for fiscal instruments similar Federal Treasury Certificates. In 2025, these rates stood astatine astir 11%, but owed to ongoing cuts person lowered involvement rates to astir 7%.

If the inclination continues, analysts foretell an accommodation successful involvement rates and greater volatility successful the Mexican peso, particularly arsenic elections and the renegotiation of the USMCA approach.

Central slope again drops involvement rates a quarter-point, but continued easing is nary certainty 

While authorities bonds person fallen retired of favour with overseas investors, superior is inactive flowing into the state done different routes. Foreign nonstop concern (FDI) successful Mexico accrued 14.5% successful the archetypal 9 months of 2025 to scope conscionable implicit US $40.9 cardinal — a caller grounds for the clip period, President Claudia Sheinbaum said Thursday.

“The willingness to put successful our state is reaffirmed,”she wrote successful a societal media post. “We’re going to extremity 2025 precise well.”  

With reports from La Jornada and La Verdad Noticias