Analysis: Mexico may pay a steep price for the killing of Jalisco cartel leader El Mencho

The person of the Jalisco New Generation (CJNG) cartel, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, died successful custody connected Feb. 22, soon aft helium was captured by Mexican authorities. The operation, which came amid renewed US demands for “tangible results” against fentanyl trafficking, appears to person relied connected American quality support.

This is the astir important involution against the cartels since the seizure of erstwhile cause lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán successful 2016. The CJNG is 1 of the strongest transgression organisations in Mexico and, alongside the Sinaloa Cartel, sits astatine the halfway of US claims about fentanyl accumulation and trafficking.

The sidesplitting of Oseguera Cervantes, who is amended known arsenic “El Mencho,” whitethorn person enabled Mexico’s authorities to unafraid a governmental triumph with Washington. But the cognition should not beryllium seen arsenic a victory. What often comes adjacent erstwhile the Mexican authorities removes a high-profile cartel fig similar El Mencho is an extended play of unit and instability wrong the country.

In my ain research on transgression struggle successful the Tierra Caliente portion of occidental Mexico, I hint however earlier rounds of arrests and authorities killings person reshaped section transgression groups, breached alliances and created openings for caller players and leaders. It was done this precise rhythm of authorities enforcement and cartel reorganisation that El Mencho roseate to prominence.

El Mencho began arsenic an operational fig linked to the Valencia Cartel, an organisation based successful the authorities of Michoacán. The radical mislaid crushed successful the precocious 2000s pursuing sustained unit from the authorities. After cardinal parts of the Valencia web were dismantled astir 2010, El Mencho and different remnants of the radical moved to Jalisco further northbound and founded the CJNG.

The conditions that allowed the CJNG to emergence came from the aforesaid enforcement repertoire that the authorities person present deployed against it. This signifier matters due to the fact that it undercuts a communal presumption among policymakers, including successful U.S. agencies specified arsenic the Drug Enforcement Administration, that removing a “boss” equals dismantling a transgression market.

The removal of Mexican transgression leaders does not origin the marketplace for drugs to vanish, nor does it origin trafficking routes to disappear. What changes is the equilibrium of powerfulness among groups that already vie for territory, labour and entree to ports, roads and section authorities.

After an unprecedented time of unrest pursuing the decease of cartel brag El Mencho, the information concern successful Jalisco and Puerto Vallarta has stabilized. (Héctor Colin/Cuartoscuro)

Studies that way the alleged “kingpin” strategy, the deliberate targeting of cartel leaders by instrumentality enforcement, person recovered that detentions and killings often trigger short-term spikes in homicides and instability successful Mexico. Some work suggests that violence rises for months aft a leader’s removal, portion different probe shows that the sidesplitting of a kingpin tin provoke a sharper summation than an arrest.

This happens due to the fact that an affected cartel faces a abrupt succession conflict and employs unit to forestall — oregon respond to — rivals investigating the caller enactment and trying to renegotiate areas of control. As transgression groups cannot usage the ceremonial tribunal strategy to resoluteness disputes, they thin to bash truthful done unfastened unit oregon bargains enforced by coercion.

This logic of unit has already been seen pursuing El Mencho’s death. Reports of cartel gunmen blocking roads, launching arson attacks and carrying retired disruptions crossed aggregate states acceptable a acquainted script: an affected organisation signalling its capacity, punishing the authorities and informing section rivals not to prehend the moment.

Even if the authorities contains this question of violence, the deeper hazard sits successful what follows. A enactment vacuum invites interior fracture and outer opportunism from rivals who person waited for an opening to trial boundaries and settee scores.

The 2024 detention of Sinaloa Cartel person Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, for instance, has provoked a question of violence in Sinaloa authorities arsenic antithetic factions successful the organisation conflict for leadership.

US cause politics

Another rhythm that keeps repeating crossed Latin America is that U.S. cause authorities shapes information agendas passim the region. A surge successful overdose deaths, for example, tin pb to governmental panic successful the U.S. and the exertion of unit connected Latin American governments to instrumentality action, usually done militarized enforcement.

These governments respond with crackdowns, raids and high-profile captures. This is followed by rising unit arsenic transgression organisations fragment and then, aft a play of time, governments effort to deescalate. The rhythm starts again erstwhile interest implicit cause trafficking adjacent arises successful the U.S.

Drug prohibition keeps this cycle alive by ruling retired immoderate effect different than unit oregon transgression law, portion failing to nutrient meaningful results. Most countries person criminalised drugs. But contempt governments reporting rising cause seizures each year, deaths linked to cause usage globally continue to climb.

Mexico’s information forces cannot extremity a transnational marketplace that is financed mostly by U.S. demand, nary substance however galore high-profile arrests they make. Operations that effect successful the sidesplitting oregon detention of cartel figures alternatively redirect and reorganise the cause trade, portion often intensifying violence.

If Mexico and the U.S. privation less cartel-related deaths, they request to halt treating kingpin killings arsenic the main metric of success. While a high-profile onslaught temporarily satisfies U.S. pressure, it is Mexican citizens who each excessively often person to unrecorded with the blowback of this approach.

Raúl Zepeda Gil is a probe chap successful the War Studies Department of King’s College London.

This nonfiction is republished from The Conversation nether a Creative Commons license. Read the archetypal nonfiction here.